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In our Mid-Year Investment Outlook for 2024, we anticipate a gradual moderation in economic growth, job creation, and inflation within the United States, creating an environment that supports most long-term risk assets as they navigate through the evolving economic climate. This rising tide suggests a favorable backdrop for investors seeking to ride out uncertnties.
The U.S economy is poised for a steady, though less robust expansion characterized by declining growth rates, stabilizing unemployment figures, and inflation pressures that may start to ease. This moderation in economic activity provides a stable foundation on which various asset classes can thrive under the current conditions of gradual tapering of quantitative easing measures.
The outcome of the U.S. elections in 2024 is likely to have nuanced implications for different sectors and investment themes, though market impacts may unfold gradually over time rather than precipitously following election results. Investors should anticipate potential shifts in policy priorities that could influence specific industries such as healthcare, technology regulation, or climate policies.
In the international economy, we foresee a convergence of growth rates across major economies but accompanied by divergent monetary policies. As some central banks continue to tighten monetary conditions to combat inflation, others might mntn or even ease their policies in response to slower economic growth pressures. This backdrop could create opportunities for investors willing to navigate cross-border complexities.
Expect a period of subdued economic activity worldwide as countries adjust to new policy frameworks and market dynamics influenced by both local and global economic factors. Industries sensitive to economic cycles, such as consumer discretionary or industrials, might face challenges, while sectors with defensive characteristics, like healthcare and utilities, could offer stability.
We anticipate an exted period of a more inclusive bull market in fixed income, characterized by moderate interest rate hikes that are well-telegraphed by central banks. This environment should support both investment-grade and high-yield bonds but might introduce some volatility as investors reassess credit risk profiles.
In the U.S. equity markets, we see an ongoing bull market driven by company earnings growth, corporate governance improvements, and technological innovation that could continue to outpace economic headwinds. Investors should focus on selecting sectors with strong fundamentals rather than simply betting on broad market indices.
International equities offer a distinct opportunity as valuations in many regions have reached historically attractive levels relative to the U.S., despite potential geopolitical risks and currency fluctuations. Investors seeking diversification benefits might benefit from selectively allocating capital outside of North America, focusing on sectors like consumer staples, healthcare, .
For those considering alternative investment structures, the Commingled Pension Trust Funds managed by JPMorgan Chase offer a unique opportunity for qualified retirement plans. These funds are designed to provide long-term growth potential through diversified portfolios and may be suitable for investors with specific risk profiles and longer time horizons.
J.P. Morgan Asset Management provides comprehensive support services for these funds, ensuring that participants receive professional management, access to a wide range of investment opportunities, and regular reporting on fund performance.
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Mid Year Investment Outlook 2024 U.S. Economic Growth Moderation Presidential Election Market Impact Fixed Income Moderate Hikes Forecast International Equities Valuation Attraction Commingled Pension Trust Funds Opportunity